A complete failure

The PBR fails on virtually every aspect, except on its objective - to deceive most people and try to push the Tories into a corner.

In forecasting, - twelve months ago, Darling predicted that the UK economy would shrink by somewhere between o.75% and 1.25% . In fact it seems likely to shrink by about 4.5%. If they can get it so wrong, what faith can we have in his forecast growth rate, 3.5%, for the immediate future? More worryingly, what faith will our creditors and credit agencies have, as he continues to increase spending. On his optimistic forecast our deficit this year will be only £3 billion more than he forecast, and next year much the same.

On his forecasts he expects to have an accumulated budget deficit of £789 billion over the next six years, and it so doing double the national debt yet again. At the end of this period the interest due to be paid on this extra debt could be as much as £30 billion. Thus about £60 billion will probably have to be found, merely to service the total debt.

What happens if we lose our "triple A" credit status and start having to pay even higher interest, if we want to protect the currency exchange rate, or suffer massively higher import prices and inflation?

How does he expect to increase employment, to create economic growth, when he is taxing employment by higher N.I. contributions?

The biggest failure is that while there has been an increase in public sector employment approaching one million over the last year or two, unemployment in the private sector has gone down 300,000. There needs to be a re-balancing away from the public sector to the one which actually produces something marketable and exportable. Of course, reform may be in Brown's vocabulary, but it is not in his nature.

As a campaigning document, at least in shoring up his core vote by trying to pretend that things are not too bad and do not need immediate treatment, it may just pass. In the morning, when clever brains have considered all the small print and done their own calculations, it may appear a economic travesty.