What the figures mean?

The green shoots are here - unemployment rose by only 30,000 in the three months ending in September!

Believe it if you like, but the figures reveal only that 30,000 more people have registered as unemployed. You would need more information to be sure that fewer people lost their jobs than in the quarter before:

- it was a summer quarter, with peak demand for temporary staff - catering, leisure, agriculture, etc. How many took casual jobs?
- how far was it due to migration - Britons and recent immigrants leaving, because of poor prospects
-how many simply dropped off the radar because they had no entitlements?
- how many managed to register as unfit?

Probably the main reason was none of these. There has been a significant rise in part-time employment, - people willing to undertake anything to avoid the stigma of unemployment or the poverty of benefits. There are now nearly a million people in part-time work, an increase of 40% on the number 12 months ago.

Whatever the reason, the number of economically inactive people, without work for whatever reason, during the quarter rose by 41,000 to 8 million. These figures, which include the 943,000 young people - a record number, illustrate our problem. The smaller increase in unemployment may be a sign of hope, and played as such by the government and its supporters in the media. They should recall how they used to accuse the Thatcher government of concealed or unreported unemployment. The same is still true, and part-time work and incapacity benefit are concealing a large part of the true picture.

Many economists were surprised by the small increase.