Thursday, 5 November 2009

What else could he do?

It was damage limitation. Cameron's focus is on winning the election.

His "new" position on Europe, - no referendum for at least five years, is to do what Tory leaders have been doing for years, that is avoiding splits in the party.

The balance was between losing some members/voters now, and some undoubtedly will leave, and risking a split which could cost the election.

The europhiles will not be pleased by the talk of repatriation of powers, but they probably realise that Cameron is almost certain to be defeated on this. The eurosceptics will not be pleased at what they will see as meek acquiescence.

Cameron, who has more to lose from alienating the eurosceptics, - he may have to placate them if he becomes PM. He could use his only lever - to be bloody-minded and unpopular - to hold up any further treaties, and alternatively to threaten the doomsday card of referendum and complete withdrawal. The first would be a minor irritation and delay, the second would be a major threat to the whole "project".

For the moment, at least publicly, there seems to be no major dissension, except by MEPs Hannan and Helmer, but I expect a loss of membership and poll strength. UKIP are licking their chops with relish, so there could be a bumpy ride and a Cameron government with a much smaller majority, if any.

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