A hung parliament?

If the most recent poling result is to be believed, the Tories have only a six point lead over Labour.

If this were to be the final result, then it is not even certain that they would have more MPs than Labour, because of the advantage Labour has in unequal constituencies.

If this happened, the LimpDems would have a real problem - should they support a largely discredited government, which is what Clegg's latest statement seems to suggest, or should they side with the Tories?

They could be in some difficulty, whatever they do because they will insist on a commitment to proportional representation, which either of the others will only pay lip-service to. Then the LimpDems are committed, because to go back will precipitate another general election which could squeeze them.

If the Tory poll lead stays at 6%, or less, we could be in for interesting times.

What could change?

The poll is one, so far, with this result, and further ones may not be so encouraging for Brown and Co.

If it does stay, and people recognise that the last thing we need is weak and divided government, this could cause a switch to either of the main parties. If Cameron blots his copy-book or Brown agrees to step down in favour of a younger charismatic leader(please, not a Blair clone), then almost anythings could happen.

It is likely that the parties could develop policies, as opposed to postures, which make voters more inclined to them. At the moment the Tories may be in a better position in this respect, but it could be that Cameron's lack of eurosceptic emphasis over the EU recently has already damaged him and them, - hence the poll result.

Expect volatility in the polls from now on, as the parties strive and as voters try to digest and weigh up what they are being offered gradually. Unless you are a risk seeker, it's probably too early to put any money on a particular result.