Speaker Bercow

The result of the election for the new Speaker had an inevitability about it, and a grave warning. Many Conservatives in Westminster and outside will have been somewhere between disappointed and angered at the result. It is significant that his campaign team, sponsors and ultimate voters had barely any Tories among them.

They disliked him before because of his disloyalty and his "cuddling up" to NuLabour. Many, I think would have preferred him to have crossed the floor of the house. Again, many of the Tory MPs and supporters feel that the Labour Party effectively gave a two fingered gesture to the public. They chose a divisive figure, who has virtually no support from his own party, merely to cause difficulties for the Tories. So much for hoping that Parliament has learned from recent events.

So, is it a disaster for the Tories? Should they be planning to unseat the new Speaker if the Tories are the next governing party?

I think that the answer is "no" to both questions.

John Bercow is on probation, and has to walk a fine line. Any perceived misdemeanour, Labour bias or whatever, could be visited on him by choosing an official Conservative candidate to stand against him in his Buckingham constituency. Traditionally the Tories have observed the convention not to stand against a sitting Speaker, but the less principled Labour and LibDems in recent years have opposed the Speaker. Or the Tories could encourage a "well-known" Tory to stand against him as an independent. How popular Bercow is in the constituency, I don't know, but activists and officials there might support another candidate.

Whether any of this would happen is, of course, unknown, but he knows that it is possible and he knows that he cannot afford to offend the Tories. In a word, he is on probation for some months. After the next election, if he survives and decides he is no longer on probation he may be safe for a time. If there is a Conservative (majority) government he will have no protection. His Labour supporting vote was partly because the Tories had got rid of Martin, the Labour Speaker, - "their man", and the Tories have shown themselves quite capable of removing another.

The Party may well feel that in one respect they have gained, - someone has "got rid of this turbulent priest". He may or may not be elevated to the peerage when he finishes as Speaker, but it is very unlikely that he will ever again sit on the Torry benches in the Commons or the Lords. He has burned his bridges.