Wednesday, 17 June 2009

How stands the recession.

On April 6th 2009 Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O'Rourke in their Vox column compared the present world recession with that depression of 1929, month by month.

On 4th June they updated it. There are individual graphs for different countries and for different economic variables, some of which are very worrying.

Let them summarise their findings:
1) World industrial production still follows the track of 1929 onwards, with little sign of green shoots.

2) World stock markets have rallied a little since March 2009 and world trade has stabilised, but these are still following a path well below the path in the 1930s.

3) There are differences between nations on changes in industrial output - within Europe, for instance, the UK and Germany are closely following their paths in the 1930s, whereas in France and Italy the present path is well below that in the 1930s. The USA and Canada are also following the 1930s path.

My own conclusion is that although the UK is following the path, month by month, of the 1930s, some other countries are well below. It is impossible to predict whether we shall escape more lightly, however.

Confidence is fragile. Thee was a rise in the UK stock markets, but this seems to have petered out into a plateau, and we wait to see what happens next - buyers and sellers could well be waiting to see what happens next.

If there are any real green shoots, and people have been claiming to see them since at least January, we are by no means out of the woods. Some experts are even discussing the possibility of a "W" recovery pattern - a partial recovery before a further plunge, and with unemployment rising for another two years.

Some politicians, and their supporters, may make reassuring statements ( - there is an election coming), and everything could recover quickly (except employment) once the process starts.







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