The BBC/Labour Party Narrative

They are singing from the same hymn sheet, as usual. This morning it is that the Labour vote was disastrous because of the expenses scandal, but the Tories did badly in the circumstances, barely increasing their vote. The same statements keep coming up, we can only assume that the spin department at Number 10 sent out one of their e-mails, and included the BBC on the list.

The truth is rather different:

Brown's and Labour's poll ratings were low even before the expenses scandal. It has been some months since they were less than ten points behind the Tories. I will concede that Cameron has dealt with the issue better and more honestly, but the expenses most widely quoted are the moat and bird house, both "small" but Tory expenses. In some areas with Tory MPs who have been exposed, there was doubtless a "kick up the b*m" abstention or vote for a rival.

The Tories have done well. Many of those who voted for UKIP, the second placed party, were those who in Westminster elections would normally vote Tory, - some were even Tory members who want to express a vote to exit the EU, rather than merely trying to renegotitate terms. The two leading parties who garner votes from eurosceptics, the Tories and UKIP, thus had nearly 50% of total votes cast.

The total vote is down, so to even increase their vote slightly is also an achievement for the Tories.

The BBC narrative is false. Although they would hate to admit it, there is now a very large majority who want a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty/Constitution - upwards of 60%, and if they are punishing Labour for anything, it is probably because they went back on their promise to hold a referendum.