High hopes

President Obama will today begin his presidential career, carrying with him the hopes of a large majority of the American public, even of those who didn't and wouldn't vote for him.

Many of us over the months have felt that Obama seemed like a Tony Blair in 1997, - an orator who won over many people by sheer rhetorical power.

The honeymoon with Blair lasted for a few years, certainly into his second term and perhaps until he decided to commit his country to the war in Iraq. Will Obama enjoy as long a honeymoon?

Obama seems to have undertaken extensive preparation, which he needs to do as he is entering a much less benign situation than Blair entered in 1997.

Disillusion will enter when it appears that Obama cannot be all things to all men, when he has to disappoint some in order to benefit others. (The largest area could be over the basic direction he takes. To judge by the few clues he has given to his political philosophy, he will push America in a much more avowedly socialist direction, with a pronounced redistribution policy.) There will be issues such as abortion which will drive a wedge between him and the Christian community which supported him.

The other source of disillusion will emanate from the emotional investment made, where some people believe that he could walk on water and solve all problems. In reality he will be defeated by some problems because they are intractable, Palestine for instance, and he will make mistakes on others. NuLabour is acquiring a reputation for incompetence as it encounters problems it struggles to overcome.

Even if the Democrat spin machine, from which NuLabour learned so much, goes into overdrive, they will not be able to prevent gradual disillusion, certainly among his political opponents who ran him close in the election and who will presumably re-group into a more effective political force.

Will he enjoy a second term? Given the hopes and support now, you would think this likely. The black and other ethnic groups, which are large in some areas and are growing, will largely remain faithful to him, and the political left which has less commitment to the liberal society of independent Americans should as well. There seems a good prospect that although his popularity will fall, slowly at first but later more rapidly, he is likely to have a majority in four years time.