Dithering is understandable

Gordon Brown has a difficulty without any of the mistakes he made as chancellor or blunders since.

He became prime minister as a Scotsman representing a Scottish seat, at a time of growing nationalism and English resentment at the perceived injustice of the Barnett formula and over-representation by Scotland. His recurring repetition of "Britishness" somehow gave the game away.

Lord Barnett has recently admitted that the so-called formula was little more than than a "back of the envelope" calculation based on the rough sizes of population of the parts of the UK in the 1970s.

If so, why not merely adjust the formula for the present population sizes? Three possibilities could arise with any change:

1) The Scottish benefit could be reduced and the English increased, which would certainly go down well with the English, but would not go down well in Scotland.

2) The situation stays roughly as it is now. This would do nothing to reduce English anger.

3) Scotland could emerge with even greater benefit. Apoplexy could well up in England.

Brown has two major fears.

i) The threat to the union and movement towards independence would go a long way to removing Labour hegemony, because Conservatives are much stronger in England than they are in Scotland, and Labour traditionally needs Scottish MPs in order to rule at Westminster. If the Scottish influence is removed or weakened, then Labour would find it harder to be the Government in London.

ii) The power base of the SNP in Scotland. Movement away from Labour in Scotland is not now usually to the C0nservatives or the LibDems but to the SNP, thus reducing the Scottish contingent at Westminster.

It is difficult to know which of the three possibilities above is the most and which the least attractive to him. This situation he inherited. You can almost feel sorry for him, - almost, but not quite!