The lottery is coming?

The Times reported this week that it calculates that as many as 100,000 children will miss out on their first choice of secondary school this summer. This is about 20%. (It is hard on them, but perhaps a measure of success that 80% do get their first choice.)

In parts of London where good schools are prized, and in areas where there are grammar schools, the figure can be as high as 50% who do not get their first choice. (This suggests that good schools are recognised as such, and that grammar schools are also seen as good schools. There is thus considerable over-application to these schools.)

It has recently been reported that over-application has been appearing for three years at primary level also.

All this suggests three things:

1) Parents are not deceived, - they know which schools are failing. Some have committed themselves heavily to private education which they can barely afford. Others have moved.

2) Social engineers who introduce a lottery, to spread the misery of bad schools, (-they would say to spread the advantage of excellent schools, while everyone else goes to good schools,) run the real risk of reducing the overall quality across all schools. A few students of outstanding ability who need the stimulus of like minded fellow students, could find themselves surrounded in a school by students with social and educational problems which completely discourage them.
Given that IQ levels are spread like an inverted "U" shape, the normal distribution, this is quite likely. Conversely there is a (small) statistical chance that a few schools may have predominantly able and motivated students whose influence counteracts the few problems, and that they will come to be something like a grammar school. How long will the social engineers tolerate this, before the statistical chances start reducing the standards here also.

3) Other factors are ignored. For instance, parents with three children of secondary age, could find their children at three different schools, with a logistical nightmare each day and a consequent increase in travel costs and environmental damage.

Unless the Government and educational authorities can really make progress in solving the many social and educational problems which are presently leading to illiteracy, innumeracy and a considerable lack of motivation, "solving" the problems by lottery can only reduce the overall level of educational achievement, thus impoverishing everyone.