What do the crime statistics prove?

The Government thinks either that we are stupid and will believe any statistic they produce, or that we live with split minds - one half knowing that crime is going down and the other half believing that our streets are dangerous or threatening.

How does the Government know that crime, or at least some kinds of crime, could be said to be falling? Two sorts of statistics are available:

Reported crime.

This means crimes which are reported to the police. The problem, of course, is that no-one knows how many crimes of some sorts are not reported. Violent crime is probably well reported, except possibly rape or light assault or bullying, but what of minor crime? Minor crimes tend to be reported if the victim can claim from insurance and so needs a crime number, - a number which will be issued over the phone before a police visit, if any.

There are plenty of jokes of the type, such as, "If the police are too busy to send a constable, or lack transport, just say that you are going out with your illegal shot gun to sort things out and you will have them swarming to your door." A lot of us, or people we know, have experience of reporting crimes, to find that the police do little or nothing. We are discouraged, don't bother to report crimes unless we want to make an insurance claim and do not want to get involved in reporting crimes. In addition, for shops with regular burglaries after several insurance claims may find that their insurance companies will not offer cover any longer, or only with very high premiums or very expensive conditions attached.

The result is that for petty crime at least, there will be an unknown element of under-reporting.

Crime Surveys:

Every year a sample of citizens are asked questions about their experience of crime. If the sample is large enough, this should produce a good indication of the level of crime.

Here again there will be some under-reporting. Crimes involving a victim or perpetrator aged less than 16 will be excluded from the sum. So called "white collar" crimes are also excluded.

The result is that while there is a possibility of exaggeration, from faulty memory or deliberately to try to force action by the authorities, there is also some under-reporting. Even if sampling is carefully controlled, it could exclude the shopkeeper whose shop is regularly broken into.

When the politician quotes a figure showing that crime generally, or particular categories of it, has diminished, do not accept the figure without a health warning. There are lies, damned lies and statistics!