Wait for the howls of protest!

Cameron's speech tomorrow may well contain much more, but certain sections of the press will pick out the "hard-hearted" Tory policy requiring those on benefit who refuse an offer of a job to lose some of their benefits.

It seems that they may be about to propose a three strikes purge on benefit cheats, as part of their "tough love" policy. Those who from medical examination would have little difficulty in working will be transferred from Incapacity Benefit of £81 per week and put on to Jobseekers' Allowance. This in itself will mean a £20 per week cut in benefit, and an incentive to seek work.

Those on Jobseekers' Allowance who turn down a reasonable job will lose a month's benefit. If they turn down a second job they will lose three month's benefits. A third refusal would debar them from the benefit for up to three years.

Two things have to be said. Firstly that those with real disabilitites will not be treated in this way, although there may be a difficult area between these and some temperamentally disinclined to work. Secondly those transferred to Jobseekers' Allowance will lack qualifications, including literacy and numeracy, and experience. Jobs available to them will be poorly paid. The state would have to support and encourage them to be better equipped.

Cameron refuses to believe that all the 500,000 under 35s on incapacity benefit are unable to work, the 5000,000 is in fact 30% more than in 1997. Claimants of Incapacity Benefit have risen by 120,000 since 1997, so it would seem that it is the younger claimants who are driving the number upwards. He is aiming to encourage 200,000 from Incapacity Benefit into work, about 7% of the present total of 2.6 millions. This is a fairly modest target, perhaps just a beginning.

When the howls of protest come it is well to remember two things:

1) Peter Hain , the Work and Pensions Minister, claims that the Tories are being dishonest, as within the present scheme claimants must take up reasonable job offers or lose benefit for six months.

2) In 2000 a panel under Professor Layard wrote a report "Full Employment", with a foreword by Tony Blair suggesting that claimants who refuse offers repeatedly should lose some or all of their benefits. This was not only right but also efficient for the economy.

We look forward to to the Cameron Speech and the mindless howls!