Will the trend end or bend?

The "Lib Dem Voice" website this week included calculations they have made of the six major opinion poll surveys undertaken in December, seeking some crumbs of comfort. The Conservative percentage varies between 39% (ICM/Guardian) and 45% (YouGov/Sunday Times), while Labour varies between 30% (ComRes/Indepenedent) and 35% (Ipsos-MORI) and the Lb Dems between 14% (Ipsos/MORI) and 18%(ICM Guardian).

The Lib Dem Voice works out the averages, which are Conservatives 42% (up 2% since the November average), Labour 32% (down 1% since November) and Lib Dems 16% (same).

They also include the comparable average figures for all year since 1997.

December Average Polling Results for the three main parties:

Year	Labour %	Conservative %	Lib Dem%
1997	54	25	16
1998	53	28	13
1999	51	29	15
2000	46	33	15
2001	44	29	20
2002	39	30	24
2003	38	32	22
2004	38	32	22
2005	36	37	19
2006	33	37	17
2007	32	42	16

It has to be said that the December 2007 polling results come mostly, if not entirely, from the period before the election of the new Lib Dem leader. Whether the exposure boosts the Lib Dem percentage, or not, may be a moot point. If Mr. Clegg succeeds in rousing his party, the percentage may rise.

What is clear from the above table is the steady and inexorable decline in the Labour percentage, without temporary rises in the set of figures. The LibDems figure is the most volatile, while the Conservative figure has grown from 25% to 42% over the ten years, but there was a set back - the 33% in 2000 fell back and was not achieved again until the 37% in 2007.

It is too simplistic to iron out ups and downs and then extrapolate into the future. Economists are familiar with the little verse, (Based on Stein's "A rose is a rose...")

"A trend is a trend is a trend,
But the question is, will it bend?
Will it alter its course, through some unseen force,
And come to a premature end?"

The unseen causes are many. Could the economy falter into recession, and question Gordon Brown's claim to super-competence? Will Nick Clegg convert the Lib Dems into a focussed body with clear policies? Will Dave Cameron have another "grammar school" moment?

What we do know about the immediate future is that there will be a debate about the new EU Const... sorry, Treaty, and there will be some rebellion. (Rebellions began under Blair, but Brown has had more rebellions than any incoming prime minister since 1945). Brown will probably survive with help from the Lib Dems and perhaps a few Tories. On extending the number of days of detention for terrorist suspects from 28 to 42, he has a much bigger task. At the moment there seem to be enough Labour rebels to defeat him, as they did Tony Blair when he tried for 90 days. Whatever happens, things will be unpleasant from the coercion he applies. Alternatively, of course, he may risk losing face by withdrawing the proposal.

Not revealed in the Lib Dem percentages is a growing number of electors saying "It is time for a change". How easily they may be convinced otherwise, or whether the change will be towards the Lib Dems, rather than the towards the Tories, time may tell. For the moment the clamour for change seems to be growing.