The polls, the polls...

At last, from the recent ICM poll, more people would vote Conservative now than Labour.

But they should not order the champagne yet! Experts are saying that even if the Conservative vote is 7% higher than Labour this would translate into only a single figure majority at Westminster . There is much more to be done! The system is weighed against the Tories - smaller Labour constituencies and fewer votes wasted in large majorities, and tactical voting means that people will switch between LibDems and Labour, which have everything in common ultimately. Last week, in a Council by-election a Conservative majority of nearly three hundred was overturned by the LibDems for this reason - the second in a month.

Experts have also calculated that if Bottler Brown had called an election in November, the Tories would have gained about 10 seats from LibDems, but none from Labour, despite some wafer thin majorities in marginals. Bottler's overall majority would have been unchanged.

Also giving concern for the Tories is the subsidiary polls behind the main one. Despite the overall lead in the main poll, 43% to 36%, Labour are still regarded as more competent on the economy and Brown is still regarded as a more desirable person as prime minister, - Cameron is by some margin still regarded as weak.

If Brown succeeds in re-inventing himself soon with a new vision, - look out for spinning and photo-shots, or if Cameron blows it again, Labour could have a resurgence. If the economy turns down early next year, or the hapless new chancellor has to backtrack on some decisions, then the mantle of economic competence could be blown, and the Tories make real progress.

Encouraging for the Tories are the signs of restlessness in the non-Brown part of the Labour party. If this could break out into a major split.......

On top of everything else is the new European treaty, in which horse-trading/editing may have caused changes since the initial draft. Will the red lines be shown to be what they are, - worthless, and shall we have a referendum to bolster Brown's fortunes? We live in interesting times!